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How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$20,826

5.03% or above

 - Kalshi

5.03% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.03% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,604
N/A
N/A
$443
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.04% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,077
N/A
N/A
$242
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.05% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,017
N/A
N/A
$184
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.02% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$436
N/A
N/A
$205
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.07% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,010
N/A
N/A
$255
Settled
No
kalshi

5.14% or above

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,904
N/A
N/A
$462
Settled
No
kalshi

5.08% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,711
N/A
N/A
$385
Settled
No
kalshi

5.17% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,477
N/A
N/A
$444
Settled
No
kalshi

5.11% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,074
N/A
N/A
$314
Settled
No
kalshi

5.12% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$914
N/A
N/A
$303
Settled
No
kalshi

5.09% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$781
N/A
N/A
$304
Settled
No
kalshi

5.16% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$764
N/A
N/A
$140
Settled
No
kalshi

5.1% or above

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$706
N/A
N/A
$494
Settled
No
kalshi

5.06% or above

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
$17
Settled
No
kalshi

5.15% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$526
N/A
N/A
$281
Settled
No
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$503
N/A
N/A
$403
Settled
No
kalshi

5.13% or above

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$480
N/A
N/A
$132
Settled
No
kalshi

5.21% or above

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$450
N/A
N/A
$251
Settled
No
kalshi

5.19% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
$319
Settled
No
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
$215
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Description

Each market tracks whether the daily published yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury surpasses a specific threshold during a defined period. The outcome depends on official Treasury Department data released at the end of each business day, with resolution occurring shortly after the final trading day of the period.

Kalshi

All markets share a common structure for determining outcomes based on the daily published par yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Each market specifies a unique threshold yield level, and the market resolves to "Yes" if, on any business day between October 23, 2026, and October 30, 2026, the published yield exceeds that threshold. Resolution relies exclusively on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Intraday values are disregarded, and any revisions to the underlying yield data after the expiration period are not considered when determining the outcome. If the threshold is met at any point during the period, the market may expire early in accordance with early expiration rules; otherwise, it expires at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day following the final day of the period. If an expiration value cannot be determined due to data unavailability or other issues, the contract is subject to contingency rules for unresolved outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market displays the current implied probabilities for the yield reaching various levels by Oct 30, 2026. You can view the price history of contracts representing different yield levels, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,555. The total volume traded in this market is $20,826. This allows participants to see how sentiment is shifting and where the most activity is focused within this market.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for the 10Y Treasury yield vary considerably. Many predict a moderate increase, while others anticipate a potential decline based on economic conditions. This market provides a real-time, aggregated view of what traders believe, which can differ from traditional polls or expert opinions. It's a forward-looking indicator reflecting the collective wisdom of those with skin in the game, offering a potentially different perspective than static analyst reports.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different yield levels, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probability of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood that the 10Y Treasury yield will be above that level by Oct 30, 2026. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices adjust, creating a dynamic and responsive market.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, and the market will settle based on whether the yield exceeds the levels represented by the various contracts traded. This provides a clear and objective determination of the outcome, based on publicly available information.

Several key economic indicators and events could significantly influence this market. Unexpected changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and geopolitical events impacting global economic stability are all potential catalysts. Stronger-than-expected economic growth could push yields higher, while a recessionary environment might lead to a decline. Any news that alters expectations about future monetary policy or economic performance could cause substantial shifts in trading activity and price movements within this market.