TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
kalshi

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?

Volume:
$4,845

5.11% or above

 - Kalshi

5.11% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.11% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,387
N/A
N/A
$1,000
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.15% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,935
N/A
N/A
$1,935
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.17% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
$108
Settled
No
kalshi

5.16% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$107
Settled
No
kalshi

5.3% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

5.18% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

5.12% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.13% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.14% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.19% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.2% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.21% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.22% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.23% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.24% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.25% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.26% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.27% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.28% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.29% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield over a specific week in 2026. Each market corresponds to a different yield threshold, and all resolve based on daily published yield data during that period.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, for each business day between October 16, 2026, and October 23, 2026. A market resolves to "Yes" if, on any qualifying business day, the published yield exceeds the specified threshold unique to that market (e.g., 5.11% or above for one market, 5.12% or above for another, etc.). Intraday values are disregarded; only the first published daily value for each business day is considered, subject to potential correction for material errors by the exchange. If any market's threshold is met, it may expire early per Rule 7.2. Otherwise, all markets expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following publication of the final daily value in the period, or one week after the period ends, whichever occurs first.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market tracks the current implied probabilities for various yield levels by Oct 23, 2026. You'll find a price history showing how these probabilities have shifted over time, giving insight into market sentiment. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,059, and the total volume traded to date, which is $4,845. This provides a clear picture of market activity and interest in potential future yield outcomes.

Currently, it’s difficult to draw a direct comparison between the odds reflected in this market and traditional analyst forecasts. While many analysts offer predictions on the future direction of the 10Y Treasury yield, these are often point estimates or ranges, rather than probabilistic forecasts like those expressed in this market. The collective wisdom of traders here may offer a different perspective than individual analyst opinions, potentially incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time information. It's important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential yield levels, and the prices of these contracts determine the implied probabilities. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief about the likelihood of each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading activity influence how quickly prices respond to new information, and the current volume of $4,845 suggests a moderate level of participation.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 10Y US Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and will determine which contracts pay out. Traders will be able to see which yield level was reached and how their positions are settled. The market's resolution will reflect the actual yield achieved by the specified date.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, are major drivers of Treasury yields. Inflation data releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), will also be closely watched, as they influence expectations about future Fed policy. Unexpected economic growth or recessionary signals, geopolitical events, and shifts in global investor sentiment could all contribute to price movements in this market.