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How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

How high will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$50,775

5.31% or above

 - Kalshi

5.31% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 12:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.31% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,720
N/A
N/A
$510
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.3% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$562
N/A
N/A
$505
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.32% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,081
N/A
N/A
$2,009
Settled
No
kalshi

5.35% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,948
N/A
N/A
$2,106
Settled
No
kalshi

5.33% or above

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,580
N/A
N/A
$1,382
Settled
No
kalshi

5.38% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,900
N/A
N/A
$1,668
Settled
No
kalshi

5.51% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,060
N/A
N/A
$965
Settled
No
kalshi

5.34% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,049
N/A
N/A
$969
Settled
No
kalshi

5.36% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,592
N/A
N/A
$1,476
Settled
No
kalshi

5.37% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,387
N/A
N/A
$944
Settled
No
kalshi

5.41% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,256
N/A
N/A
$1,838
Settled
No
kalshi

5.39% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,138
N/A
N/A
$772
Settled
No
kalshi

5.58% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,523
N/A
N/A
$1,182
Settled
No
kalshi

5.55% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,364
N/A
N/A
$801
Settled
No
kalshi

5.59% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,160
N/A
N/A
$821
Settled
No
kalshi

5.43% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,074
N/A
N/A
$632
Settled
No
kalshi

5.45% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,064
N/A
N/A
$554
Settled
No
kalshi

5.5% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,064
N/A
N/A
$715
Settled
No
kalshi

5.4% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,033
N/A
N/A
$414
Settled
No
kalshi

5.42% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$792
N/A
N/A
$638
Settled
No
kalshi

5.49% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$786
N/A
N/A
$320
Settled
No
kalshi

5.48% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$771
N/A
N/A
$351
Settled
No
kalshi

5.57% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$718
N/A
N/A
$409
Settled
No
kalshi

5.47% or above

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$663
N/A
N/A
$348
Settled
No
kalshi

5.44% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$585
N/A
N/A
$410
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

This event tracks the performance of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield over a specific period, focusing on whether it surpasses various threshold levels. The outcome depends on daily published rates during the timeframe, reflecting broader economic and financial market conditions without involving direct participant counts or team performances.

Kalshi

The event assesses whether the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury exceeds specified thresholds at any point between October 1, 2026, and October 30, 2026. Resolution relies exclusively on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor, as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, with intraday values excluded. The first published value for each business day is authoritative, unless the Exchange identifies a material error before expiration. If any threshold is met, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes' and may expire early per Rule 7.2; otherwise, expiration occurs by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the period ends or one week thereafter, whichever comes first.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10-year Treasury yield market tracks the current price of contracts representing potential yield levels by Oct 30, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the perceived probability of different outcomes has changed over time, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $1,641. The total volume traded on this market is $50,775. This provides a real-time view of where traders stand on the future direction of long-term interest rates.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield. While some analysts predict a continued rise in yields due to persistent inflation, this market incorporates a broader range of opinions and potential economic scenarios. The collective judgment of traders here may anticipate factors not fully captured in standard economic models, such as unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in Federal Reserve policy. It’s a dynamic comparison, as both prediction markets and analyst forecasts evolve with new data.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers for contracts representing different yield levels. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that yield being reached by Oct 30, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own assessments of risk, leading to a fluid and responsive price discovery process. This allows for a market-based forecast of the 10-year Treasury yield, driven by the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual 10-year US Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and will represent the closing yield on that date. The contract corresponding to the yield level closest to the actual yield will be considered the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts on the winning yield level will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on other levels will not.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 30, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as inflation reports (CPI and PPI), employment figures, and GDP growth, will be closely watched. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, including interest rate decisions and forward guidance, will also have a substantial impact. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global economic conditions could also introduce volatility. Any news that alters expectations about future economic growth or inflation is likely to influence trading activity and price movements in this market.