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24H VOL:

$153,964,051

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,815,744,871

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,809,858,743

498,684

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37,244

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2,831

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5

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VS.

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How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?
polymarket
kalshi

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

Total volume:
$69,312
Volume 24h:
$1,009
55%
Liquidity:
$4,807
7%
Open interest:
$20,485
0.31%

5.71% or above

 - Kalshi

5.71% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 06d:04h:38m

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.70% by Oct 30, 2026?

7%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.71% or above

Trade
7%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$3,231
0%
1%
$632
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.69% or above

Trade
7%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$1,624
0%
5%
$223
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.86% or above

Trade
7%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$314
0%
0%
$314
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.87% or above

Trade
6%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$312
0%
0%
$212
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.7% or above

Trade
6%
Yes 4¢No 100¢
4¢
N/A
$4,318
0%
9%
$1,576
6d 4h 38m
active
polymarket

5.70%

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 6.7¢No 98¢
4.7¢
$522
$3,037
2%
15%
N/A
1w 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.3%
Yes 5.4¢No 99¢
Avg: 4.4¢Max: 4.7¢
kalshi

5.91% or above

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$638
0%
0%
$281
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.92% or above

Trade
5%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$436
0%
0%
$353
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.74% or above

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,487
0%
4%
$1,000
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.75% or above

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$925
0%
5%
$628
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.88% or above

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$360
0%
0%
$283
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.76% or above

Trade
5%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,877
0%
12%
$986
6d 4h 38m
active
polymarket

5.76%

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
$440
$1,865
0%
25%
N/A
1w 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.8%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

6.00%

Trade
4%
Yes 5.8¢No 98.7¢
4.5¢
$800
$2,573
0.39%
2%
N/A
1w 13h
active
kalshi

5.77% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$914
0%
4%
$833
6d 4h 38m
active
polymarket

5.85%

Trade
4%
Yes 6.2¢No 98.9¢
5.1¢
$521
$2,145
0%
23%
N/A
1w 13h
active
kalshi

5.85% or above

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$1,198
0%
12%
$613
6d 4h 38m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.7%
Yes 4.6¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 4.1¢Max: 5.1¢
polymarket

5.95%

Trade
3%
Yes 4.3¢No 99¢
3.3¢
$105
$1,579
0%
0%
N/A
1w 13h
active
kalshi

5.9% or above

Trade
3%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$754
0%
9%
$478
6d 4h 38m
active
polymarket

5.90%

Trade
2%
Yes 3.4¢No 99¢
2.4¢
$382
$2,049
0.84%
16%
N/A
1w 13h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.4%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 2.2¢Max: 2.4¢
polymarket

5.73%

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 5.6¢No 98.8¢
4.4¢
$1,292
$4,962
1%
12%
N/A
1w 13h
active
kalshi

5.73% or above

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,902
0%
4%
$1,686
6d 4h 38m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.1%
Yes 3.3¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 2.7¢Max: 4.4¢
kalshi

5.72% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,968
0%
0.03%
$997
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.84% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$492
0%
0%
$294
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.79% or above

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$491
0%
9%
$449
6d 4h 38m
active
Total markets: 25 of 39

Description

This group of markets asks forecasters to predict whether the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach specific levels during the month of October 2026. The markets are based on the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge on the specific dates considered for resolution and the inclusion of business days only (Kalshi) versus all days (Polymarket).Hero tip: Consider the potential impact of weekends and holidays on the Kalshi markets. Polymarket's broader timeframe and later deadline may offer more opportunities for resolution.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the 30-year Treasury yield reaches or exceeds a specific value on any day between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026, with a final resolution deadline of November 13, 11:59 PM ET. Source: Department of the Treasury.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the 30-year Treasury yield exceeds a specific value on any business day between October 1, 2026 and October 30, 2026. Source: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Kalshi

All markets share a common evaluation framework focused on daily published par yields for the 30-year U.S. Treasury over the period from October 1, 2026, to October 30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific yield threshold, incremental by 0.01 percentage points, ranging from 5.65% to 5.94%. Resolution occurs if, on any business day within the defined window, the official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor exceeds the respective threshold. The first published value for each business day is authoritative, subject to potential correction for material errors by the Exchange. Markets may expire early if the threshold is met, following Rule 7.2; otherwise, expiration occurs by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the period ends, or one week thereafter. All markets exclusively use daily published rates—intraday fluctuations are disregarded—and rely solely on data published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on where the 30-year Treasury yield will reach by the end of October 2026. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $69,312, with $178 traded in the last 24 hours. The Polymarket currently favors the outcome of the 30-year yield being above 5.64% with a chance of 79%, while Kalshi leans towards the yield hitting 5.67% at 98%. This allows traders to express their beliefs about future interest rates and profit from correctly anticipating market movements in the 30-year Treasury yield market.

Prediction market prices often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than individual analyst predictions. This market, specifically, aggregates diverse opinions on the future direction of the 30-year Treasury yield. While traditional financial analysts provide forecasts based on economic models and reports, this market incorporates real-time sentiment and allows participants to adjust their views as new information emerges. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and biases, but the collective intelligence showcased in this market can provide a valuable signal for understanding expectations around interest rate movements.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket might attract a different class of trader than Kalshi, leading to differing risk appetites and interpretations of economic data. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform—currently $69,312 overall—can influence price discovery. Differences in trading fees or margin requirements could also contribute to price discrepancies. These factors create independent price signals, allowing for arbitrage opportunities and a more robust overall market assessment.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 30-year Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yield will be determined by the average yield reported by a reputable financial data source at the end of October 2026. Traders will be able to see the outcome and any associated payouts following the verification process. This allows for a clear and transparent determination of whether the market’s predictions were accurate regarding the future direction of the 30-year Treasury yield.

Several economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Key factors include inflation reports, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and unexpected shifts in economic growth. Stronger-than-expected inflation data could push yields higher, while dovish signals from the Federal Reserve might lower them. Geopolitical instability or changes in global risk appetite could also influence investor demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby affecting yields. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on movements in this market before Nov 1, 2026.