TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 9:15 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the Green Party's vote share in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The markets aim to predict the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate, with various markets focusing on different vote share ranges.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi presents markets focused on ranges where a 'Yes' outcome means the vote share falls within that range. Polymarket includes both 'less than' and 'within range' questions, creating differing SKUs.Hero tip: Carefully consider the framing of each market. A Kalshi 'Yes' on 20%-100% means the vote share is between 20% and 100%, inclusive. A Polymarket 'No' on 'less than 20%' means the vote share is 20% or greater.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets asking 'Will the Green Party candidate win less than X% of the vote?' and 'Will the Green Party candidate win X-Y% of the vote?'. Resolution relies on official results from Camden Council, with a fallback to the lowest range bracket if results aren't known by June 30, 2027. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
- Kalshi: Kalshi offers markets resolving 'Yes' if the Green Party vote share is within a specified range (e.g., 5%-100%). Multiple markets exist for different ranges. "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Green Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the Green Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election, with each market requiring a specific minimum threshold (ranging from 5% to 40%) to be met or exceeded for a 'Yes' outcome. The vote percentage is calculated as the number of votes received by the Green Party divided by the total number of valid votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded. Certified or official results are used unless a qualifying unofficial result is provided under specific conditions. Write-in votes are included in the calculation, while invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur, the specified round or the first round is used if none is specified. Should the election be cancelled, suspended, or postponed before conclusion, or if no certified or qualifying unofficial results are available by the expiration date, the markets resolve as 'NO,' unless an exception applies under the Fully-Conducted Elections provision. Additionally, if a recount alters the certified percentage before the expiration date, the most recent certified percentage is used to determine the outcome.