TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 2:24 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the third most valid votes in the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the third most valid votes in the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary by-election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each candidate securing third place in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust predictions accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final results of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which candidate officially places third in the election, based on the official vote count released by the relevant electoral authorities. The outcome will be based on the official results and will not require any subjective interpretation or external judgment. Traders should monitor official sources for the final tally.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution date. Major news events relating to the candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift sentiment. Changes in national political trends or local campaign dynamics could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, the release of new polling data, even if it contradicts existing averages, could prompt traders to reassess their positions. Any event that alters perceptions of a candidate's chances of securing third place in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election has the potential to cause price fluctuations.
