TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 10:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the Hobart Lord Mayor election, scheduled for October 27, 2026. Markets are available on Polymarket and Kalshi, covering a range of potential candidates and an 'other' option. Resolution will be based on the official results declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the same event – the official winner of the Hobart Lord Mayor election – using the same primary source for truth.Primary resolution logic: Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the candidate officially declared the winner by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
- If no winner is declared by March 31, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the resolution will follow the Tasmanian Electoral Commission's tie-breaking procedures, and the market will resolve to the candidate ultimately declared the winner.
- Election Delay: If the election is significantly delayed beyond October 27, 2026, the resolution date of March 31, 2027, will remain fixed, and the market will resolve to 'Other' if no winner is declared by then.
Polymarket
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Kalshi
If Tiffany Ashdown wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rifatul Bari wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Louise Bloomfield wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mike Dutta wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bill Harvey wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Kelly wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Harvey Lennon wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Jack McShane wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ryan Posselt wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Charles Wooley wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marti Zucco wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on a particular outcome. This can reveal stronger convictions and incorporate a wider range of information, including factors not captured in polls. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes surpassing polling data in forecasting election results. However, it’s important to remember that both methods have limitations, and discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and participant biases.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements from prominent political figures, shifts in public opinion reflected in new polling data, and significant campaign finance disclosures could all influence trading activity. Unexpected events, such as scandals or controversies involving candidates, could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, any changes to the election date or format could introduce uncertainty and volatility. Monitoring media coverage, candidate debates, and social media sentiment will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could shift the odds.