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Highest third-place vote share in a 2026 Senate race?
4%+
- Polymarket
4%+ - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:03h:45m
Will a third-place Senate candidate win at least 4% of the vote in 2026?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the vote share received by a third-place candidate in any of the 2026 U.S. Senate elections considered by this market is equal to or greater than the specified vote share. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The third-place candidate in each election is the candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in that election. Aggregated write-in or "scattering" totals that are not attributed to a single named candidate will not be considered a candidate. Elections with fewer than three candidates receiving votes have no third-place candidate. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election, or in the relevant round of the election as defined below. Vote shares will be considered unrounded. For elections that use ranked-choice voting or runoff elections, the relevant vote shares will be those of the first round. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. This market will resolve based on the single highest third-place vote share across all such elections. In the event that the relevant vote share for a candidate cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the vote share received by a third-place candidate in any of the 2026 U.S. Senate elections considered by this market is equal to or greater than the specified vote share. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The third-place candidate in each election is the candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in that election. Aggregated write-in or "scattering" totals that are not attributed to a single named candidate will not be considered a candidate. Elections with fewer than three candidates receiving votes have no third-place candidate. Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the relevant state in the election, or in the relevant round of the election as defined below. Vote shares will be considered unrounded. For elections that use ranked-choice voting or runoff elections, the relevant vote shares will be those of the first round. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. This market will resolve based on the single highest third-place vote share across all such elections. In the event that the relevant vote share for a candidate cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability that a third-place candidate will garner at least 8% of the vote in a 2026 Senate race. This contrasts with traditional polling, which typically focuses on head-to-head matchups or the top two candidates. Polling averages often don't account for the potential impact of a strong third-party challenger or a candidate gaining momentum late in the campaign. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the final result.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The current implied probability, as indicated by the share price, is 99.8%.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official vote totals reported by relevant election authorities for all 2026 Senate races. The market will determine if any third-place candidate, meaning any candidate not finishing in first or second place, receives at least 8% of the total votes cast in their respective race. The final vote share will be the determining factor.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from potential third-party candidates, shifts in the political landscape, or unexpected events affecting the major party nominees could all cause traders to reassess the probability of a third-place candidate exceeding 8% of the vote. Polling data showing increased support for independent or minor party candidates would also likely move the market. Furthermore, any significant fundraising successes by a third-place contender could signal increased viability and influence trading activity.
