TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
55%+
- Polymarket
55%+ - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Education
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, odds from this market reflect a different outlook than many published analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean toward specific expectations based on educational trends, the market price incorporates real-time trader sentiment and can shift quickly with new data or polling updates. Comparing both sources offers a broader perspective on potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders determine the price through their bets, with the current top outcome priced at 25.0%. The market’s volume of $73,148 reflects overall interest and liquidity. As new information emerges about the exam and Meta’s potential performance, prices can shift rapidly based on betting patterns, offering a dynamic indicator of collective expectations for this market.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final Meta score will be compared against market predictions, and the result will be settled accordingly based on publicly available academic and media sources.
Key signals include major educational policy announcements, shifts in public polling about the exam’s difficulty, and any high-profile commentary from academic leaders. Unexpected events such as curriculum changes or influential media coverage could also cause rapid price swings, as traders react to new information affecting expectations for the final score.
