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Vol.
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Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Education
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Frequently asked questions
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s current odds reflect a collective trader view that can diverge significantly from expert predictions. While analysts may publish their expectations based on research and historical trends, the market price incorporates real-time betting activity, sentiment shifts, and new information as it emerges, often leading to different implied probabilities.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through buying and selling shares of possible outcomes, with prices fluctuating based on supply and demand. The current top outcome has a chance of 69.1%, and volume of $80,593 shows the level of interest and liquidity in this market as it approaches resolution.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final Kimi score from Humanity’s Last Exam will be the official result, closing all positions based on the score that is publicly recorded and accepted.
Key signals include early release of exam sections, expert commentary on expected difficulty, and any changes to the exam format or scoring rules. Major educational announcements, shifts in public discussion around AI testing, and any high-profile analyst reports could also shift trader sentiment and move this market significantly before Jan 1, 2027.
