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Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
polymarket

Highest Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Jul 23, 2026, 6:44 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$132,538
Volume 24h:
$4,425
224%
Liquidity:
$7,680
27%
Open interest:
$15,722N/A

55%+

 - Polymarket

55%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 91¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% | APY: 44% 93 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

55%+

Trade
90%
3%
Yes 91¢No 10.4¢
1.4¢
$3,472
$31,727
2%
5%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

60%+

Trade
47%
11%
Yes 50¢No 56¢
6¢
$918
$57,681
2%
13%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

65%+

Trade
28%
9%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$1,005
$33,022
0.75%
15%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

70%+

Trade
10%
Yes 11¢No 91¢
2¢
$1,235
$7,617
37%
71%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

75%+

Trade
8%
1%
Yes 8.2¢No 93.2¢
1.4¢
$1,050
$2,491
22%
33%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Anthropic Claude model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the 2026 Humanity’s Last Exam Claude score market tracks real-time odds, price movements, and 24-hour volume of $4,009. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes for this education-focused prediction market, giving you a live view of market sentiment and activity.

Currently, this market’s odds reflect a diverse range of expectations, often differing from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may publish their own projections based on research and historical trends, traders on Polymarket incorporate additional variables, including recent developments in AI education tools and policy changes, which can shift the market’s implied probability away from consensus estimates.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts at mutually agreed prices. The current top outcome has a chance of 90.3%, determined by the balance of buy and sell orders and recent trading volume. Market depth and liquidity can shift pricing dynamically as new information emerges.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final Claude score from Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 will be compared against the market’s defined categories, and the result will be settled based on publicly available academic records and official announcements.

Several signals could influence this market before it settles. Major updates to the exam’s format, significant changes in AI policy affecting educational tools, or high-profile performance reports from early test administrations may all shift trader sentiment. Additionally, any unexpected disruptions to the testing schedule or widespread changes in participation rates could cause rapid price movements on Polymarket.