TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks whether Harvard University's federal sponsored revenue exceeds various thresholds in its fiscal year ending June 30, 2026. The revenue figure is taken from the university's official annual financial report, with specific sections designated for verification. Certain subordinate data sources are excluded to maintain consistency.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on whether Harvard University's federal sponsored revenue for fiscal year 2026, ending June 30, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds ranging from $600 million to $1 billion. The determining figure comes from the Financial Overview section of Harvard's Annual Financial Report for that fiscal year. If this section does not state a federal figure, the sum of federal direct and indirect cost lines under Sponsored support in the Consolidated Statements of Changes in Net Assets will be used instead. The expenditure total from the sponsored support note—which includes federal work subcontracted to Harvard by other institutions—and any Fact Book total are explicitly excluded from consideration. Only the figure as first published in the report is valid; any subsequent restatement or reclassification of the data will not affect the outcome. This ensures that the market resolves based on the initially reported data, providing clarity and finality for all participants.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often reflect a more immediate, risk-adjusted view of expectations. Where polls or reports may lag, traders on Kalshi react quickly to new data, potentially showing higher or lower confidence based on recent trends, debates, or policy signals. The resulting probability can diverge noticeably from consensus estimates.
On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds for the Harvard federal funding market through continuous bidding and asking. The current probability reflects collective expectations about federal revenue flows to Harvard in FY2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price fluctuations respond to macroeconomic indicators, policy announcements, and analyst forecasts influencing federal budget allocations for educational institutions.
This market resolves around Jan 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the official fiscal data for the relevant year, removing speculation and aligning the market result with authoritative government records.
Several signals could shift this market before Jan 15, 2027. Key catalysts include federal budget proposals, congressional voting records on higher education funding, and macroeconomic conditions affecting discretionary spending. Major policy shifts or budget crises would likely drive rapid adjustments in trading probabilities as participants reassess Harvard’s expected federal revenue streams for FY2026.
