Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?
Start: 2026-10-16T02:56:52.000Z
End: 2026-11-03T04:59:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Hamilton (D)'s hourly odds value is higher than Roger Marshall (R)'s hourly odds value in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Adam Hamilton (D) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Adam Hamilton (D) or Roger Marshall (R) in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Adam Hamilton (D) and Roger Marshall (R) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Hamilton (D) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Adam Hamilton (D) and Roger Marshall (R) in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-kansas-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Hamilton (D)'s hourly odds value is higher than Roger Marshall (R)'s hourly odds value in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Adam Hamilton (D) being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Adam Hamilton (D) or Roger Marshall (R) in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Adam Hamilton (D) and Roger Marshall (R) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Hamilton (D) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Adam Hamilton (D) and Roger Marshall (R) in the "Kansas Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-kansas-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, the odds reflected in this market offer a different perspective than traditional polling data. Polling averages suggest a close race, but the market may be incorporating factors not fully captured in polls, such as candidate fundraising, debate performance, or anticipated voter turnout. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent a collective forecast based on individuals putting their capital at risk, while polls reflect stated intentions at a single point in time. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where informed traders see opportunities or disagree with conventional wisdom.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Kansas Senate election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. The market will then settle, and traders will receive payouts based on their holdings and the final outcome. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the result, reflecting the actual outcome of the election as reported by official sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements from either candidate, unexpected shifts in polling data, and key debate performances are all potential catalysts. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting voter turnout or candidate reputations could also move the market. News regarding potential third-party candidates or changes in the political landscape could also influence trading activity. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding how the market’s perception of the Kansas Senate election evolves.

Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?

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