TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

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2,984,028,936

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$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

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events

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Guam Governor Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Who will win the Guam Governor election?

Sep 4, 2026, 2:03 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$10,803
Volume 24h:
$276
4%
Liquidity:
$40,760
13%
Open interest:
$2,406N/A

Vicente Ada (R)

 - Polymarket

Vicente Ada (R) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:02h:38m

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?

65%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 65% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Vicente Ada (R)

Trade
65%
1%
Yes 68¢No 39¢
7¢
$20,281
$5,428
1%
12%
N/A
1d 2h 38m
Active
polymarket

Therese Terlaje (D)

Trade
35%
5%
Yes 37¢No 67.6¢
4.6¢
$20,479
$5,375
4%
15%
N/A
1d 2h 38m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than traditional polling averages. While polls show a close race, this market indicates a stronger likelihood of one candidate winning. It’s important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and can be affected by sampling bias or question wording. Prediction markets, on the other hand, reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders who have a financial stake in accurately forecasting the outcome of the Guam gubernatorial election. This dynamic can lead to differences in perceived probabilities.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, reflecting the latest information and sentiment among traders. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome drives up its price, increasing its implied probability, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of the election’s potential results.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the Guam Election Commission following the gubernatorial election. The candidate who receives the most votes, as certified by the official source, will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders who correctly predicted the winning candidate will receive a payout based on the odds at the time of their trade.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 3, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant shifts in public opinion revealed by new polls, and unexpected campaign events could all cause price fluctuations. Any developments related to the candidates' platforms, fundraising efforts, or potential scandals could also move the market. Furthermore, external events impacting Guam, such as economic changes or natural disasters, might indirectly affect voter sentiment and, consequently, the predictions within this market. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding the evolving probabilities.