TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Grok App Downloads in September
kalshi

What will be the Grok App download performance in September?

Volume:
$129,693

Above 46

 - Kalshi

Above 46 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 46

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,708
N/A
N/A
$6,903
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,054
N/A
N/A
$4,754
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 36

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,532
N/A
N/A
$6,213
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,984
N/A
N/A
$7,583
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 42

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,196
N/A
N/A
$4,752
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,182
N/A
N/A
$3,139
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 27

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,656
N/A
N/A
$2,850
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 24

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,550
N/A
N/A
$3,817
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 62

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,015
N/A
N/A
$2,999
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 82

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,843
N/A
N/A
$3,532
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 110

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,667
N/A
N/A
$2,667
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 114

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,667
N/A
N/A
$2,667
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 94

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,401
N/A
N/A
$3,214
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 33

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,393
N/A
N/A
$3,174
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 66

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,011
N/A
N/A
$2,001
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 54

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,620
N/A
N/A
$2,614
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 118

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,514
N/A
N/A
$2,514
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 90

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,469
N/A
N/A
$2,469
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 98

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,301
N/A
N/A
$2,301
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 102

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,301
N/A
N/A
$2,301
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 74

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,261
N/A
N/A
$2,151
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 58

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,014
N/A
N/A
$2,014
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 50

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,861
N/A
N/A
$1,861
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 86

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,401
N/A
N/A
$1,401
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 78

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,363
N/A
N/A
$1,303
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

These markets track the performance of the Grok App in September 2026 by comparing its download numbers to September 2025. Each market has a specific threshold, and if the downloads exceed that threshold, the market resolves positively. The outcomes reflect growth relative to the previous year.

Kalshi

The official rules for these markets dictate that the resolution is based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for Grok App Downloads in September 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, and if the reported value exceeds the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same secondary rule, stating that any corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome. The index used measures year-over-year performance, where a value of 100 indicates equal downloads compared to the same month last year, values above 100 signify growth, and values below 100 indicate a decline. It is important to note that Kalshi is not affiliated with or connected to the underlying company, and all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often reflect a more nuanced or contrarian view, incorporating real-time trader sentiment and short-term expectations that may differ from longer-term institutional projections. While analysts offer detailed reports, the market price condenses collective trader judgment into a single, continuously updating percentage — a snapshot of what many believe will happen in the near term.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine this market’s price through a continuous order-book system where buyers and sellers post bids and asks. The displayed top outcome chance reflects the aggregated balance of these orders at any moment, adjusting instantly to new information, volume of $129,693, and shifting trader confidence in download performance.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will match officially reported app download figures against the market’s defined thresholds, closing the market based on clear, publicly available data at that time.

Key signals include major product updates, celebrity endorsements, media coverage spikes, or changes in download policies that affect user access. Any surprise announcement — positive or negative — from the app developer, coupled with weekend usage patterns or competitor activity, can shift trader sentiment and move this market significantly before it settles.