TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Science and Technology
Grok 4.20 released on...?
polymarket

Grok 4.20 released on...?

Volume:
$220,405

No release by February 14

 - Polymarket

No release by February 14 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 15, 2026

Will Grok 4.20 not be released by February 14, 2026?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No release by February 14

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$42,071
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 7

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,318
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 13

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,673
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 12

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,143
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 3

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,376
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 14

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,330
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

Released before February 1

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,728
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 2

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,082
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 6

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,831
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 5

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,529
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 9

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,898
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 10

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,790
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 8

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,485
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 11

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,528
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 4

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,834
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
polymarket

February 1

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,788
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 16

Description

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) when xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public. This market will resolve to "Released before February 1" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public before February 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "No release by February 14" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is not made available to the general public by February 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.