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$117b

24H VOL:

$136,514,621

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,380,975,298

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,197,935,553

342,340

Markets across

34,269

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,394

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

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58%

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GPU rental prices (A100) end of August?
Other
polymarket
kalshi

GPU rental prices (A100) end of August?

Total volume:
$40,212
Volume 24h:
$5,175
26%
Liquidity:
$7,319
34%
Open interest:
$66
0%

$1.00-$1.25

 - Polymarket

$1.00-$1.25 - Polymarket

98%

+12%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$10.6k

·

Resolves Sep 7, 2026

Time left: 04d:01h:50m

Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on August 31, 2026?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% High Projected APY: 531% 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks the rental prices of NVIDIA A100 GPUs as measured by Ornn AI at the end of August 2026. The markets resolve based on whether the Ornn A100 Index or Ornn - Google average price per million tokens meets specific threshold conditions on August 31, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold definition divergence (bracket vs point) and metric difference (Index vs Google average price)Hero tip: Trade cautiously as Polymarket uses bracket logic with Ornn A100 Index, while Kalshi uses strict 'above' thresholds with Ornn - Google average price. Monitor both data streams to anticipate resolution mismatches.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Uses Ornn A100 Index price brackets with 'higher bracket' rule for exact matches. Source: Ornnai.com dashboard. If data falls exactly between two brackets, resolves to higher bracket.
  • Kalshi: Uses Ornn - Google average price per million tokens with strict 'above' thresholds. Source: Ornn AI data. Market resolves to Yes only if value is strictly above specified threshold.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn A100 Index price for August 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the A100 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Ornn-reported Google average price per million tokens as of August 31, 2026, at 10AM ET, using the most recent settled print available at that time. Ornn settles daily prints approximately 12 hours after each day's 00:00 UTC close, meaning the settled print at expiration might reflect data from the prior calendar day. Revisions to the underlying data after the expiration date are disregarded, and all valuations use the USD iteration of the index, rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a specific threshold; if the settled price exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the A100 GPU rental price market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the likelihood of different rental rates by the end of August. It displays current odds, volume of $30,539, and 24-hour volume of $14, offering a consensus view of market expectations for this market.

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment through dynamic pricing, often showing a 82.8 gap when compared to traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically assess GPU demand cycles, supply chain updates, and macroeconomic trends to project rental values. Meanwhile, prediction markets aggregate real-time bets that can react faster to breaking news or shifts in cloud-computing demand. The 97.8% probability here suggests market participants are pricing in specific expectations that may diverge from slower-moving expert reports. Both approaches offer value, but this market captures crowd-sourced intuition about the A100 GPU rental price market.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. The pricing differences arise because each venue has distinct user bases, liquidity profiles, and design choices that shape how traders evaluate risk. For example, Polymarket may attract more speculative bettors responding quickly to tech-sector rumors, while Kalshi could reflect institutional or longer-term participants weighing fundamentals like data-center capacity expansions. This can lead to divergent views, with Polymarket currently favoring Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on August 31, 2026? at 97.8%, whereas Kalshi leans toward Will the Google average token price be above 0.45 at 10AM ET on Aug 31, 2026 at 15.0%. Volume disparities of $30,539 versus $14 also influence price discovery across these platforms.

This market resolves around Sep 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rental price will be checked against independent, widely accepted sources, ensuring an impartial close that reflects the actual market conditions at that moment.

Several signals could shift this market before it closes: new GPU shipment announcements, changes in cloud service pricing, regulatory updates affecting AI infrastructure, or unexpected shifts in demand from major AI projects. Any data indicating tighter or looser supply, or stronger or weaker rental uptake, may cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust their expectations.