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471,138

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GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
polymarket

Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?

Sep 4, 2026, 12:45 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$282,483
Volume 24h:
$19,912
30%
Liquidity:
$25,324
40%
Open interest:
$101,529N/A

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?

92%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 93¢ buys you 108 shares | Odds: 92% Total Payout: $108 | Net Profit: $8 Multiplier: 1.08x | ROI: 8% | APY: 41% 77 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

Trade
92%
1%
Yes 93¢No 9¢
2¢
$17,248
$72,599
4%
57%
N/A
2mo 2w 3d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
35%
6%
Yes 35¢No 66¢
1¢
$2,891
$80,978
14%
68%
N/A
2w 2d 19h
active
polymarket

October 23

Trade
19%
3%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
$2,600
$45,686
13%
52%
N/A
1w 1d 19h
active
polymarket

October 16

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.5¢
2¢
$2,585
$55,723
2%
27%
N/A
1d 19h 27m
active
polymarket

October 9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the GPT Astra 6.1 release market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $19,314. You can see how the probability of different outcomes has shifted over time with the price chart. The top outcome, Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?, currently has a chance of 92.0%. This provides a snapshot of where traders are placing their bets regarding the release timeline of the next Astra model.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a high probability that GPT Astra 6.1 will be released by October 31, 2026. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which predict a later release date due to the complexities of AI model development and testing. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket appears to be more optimistic. It is important to note that analyst predictions are based on publicly available information and expert opinion, while this market reflects real-money wagers and a broader range of insights.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of the corresponding outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates the market's assessment of the probability of the next Astra model being released by the specified date, based on the collective actions of traders.

This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a GPT Astra 6.1+ model is officially released to the public before or by October 31, 2026. The release must be documented through official announcements from the developing organization and widely reported by reliable news sources. The final outcome will be determined based on this publicly available information, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Announcements regarding the development progress of GPT Astra 6.1, including successful testing phases or delays, would likely cause price fluctuations. Major breakthroughs in AI technology or unexpected regulatory changes could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any official statements from the developing organization regarding the release timeline would be closely watched. Positive news would likely drive prices higher, while negative news could lead to a decrease in the probability of a timely release.