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416,910

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Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1AM-1:15AM ET
predict

Will gold price go up or down?

Volume:
$191

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1AM-1:15AM ET

 - Predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1AM-1:15AM ET - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 1:15 AM EST

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predict

Gold Up or Down - October 26, 1AM-1:15AM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$1
$191
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T05:00:00Z

Predict

This market will resolve to "Up" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than the price at the beginning of that range. It will resolve to "Down" if the XAU/USDT price at the end of the time range is lower than the price at the beginning of that range. If the two prices are exactly equal, the market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is Chainlink, specifically the XAU/USDT data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xau-usdt-markpriceindex-datalink?timeframe=1d&chart=candlestick To verify the final price, use the close price of the 5m candlestick just before the market's end time. For example, for a market running from 1:00 to 1:15 PM ET, use the close price of the 1:10 PM candlestick as the final price. The resolution source uses the index price (field i) from Binance's USDS-Margined Futures Mark Price Stream for All Markets (!markPrice@arr), denominated in the quote currency. This market is based solely on the price reported by the Chainlink XAU/USDT data stream, not on other sources or futures markets. If Chainlink data is unavailable or otherwise unusable for resolution, the market will resolve based on a consensus of reliable sources. 2026-10-26T05:00:00Z

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the gold price movement market tracks the current odds of gold increasing or decreasing in value during the specified time window. You’ll find a visual representation of where traders are placing their bets, along with the market’s price history and 24-hour volume, which is currently $191. The total volume for this market is $191. This allows you to quickly assess the overall sentiment and activity surrounding potential gold price fluctuations.

Currently, it’s important to note that this market’s predictions are solely based on the collective intelligence of traders on Predict. Comparing these odds to traditional analyst forecasts reveals whether the crowd anticipates a different outcome than experts. If analysts are largely bullish on gold, but this market shows a more even split, it suggests traders may be factoring in risks or uncertainties not fully captured in conventional analysis. This comparison can provide a broader perspective on potential price movements.

On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether gold will be up or down during the specified period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price essentially represents the market’s consensus expectation, and changes in volume and trading activity directly influence the odds.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the change in the gold price between 1:00 AM and 1:15 AM ET on October 26th. A definitive increase or decrease in price during that timeframe will determine whether the 'Up' or 'Down' outcome is declared. The specific price data used for verification will be sourced from established financial data providers.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation figures or employment reports, often influence gold prices. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or unexpected conflicts, can also drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, statements from central banks regarding monetary policy, particularly interest rate decisions, are closely watched by investors and could trigger substantial price movements in this market.