TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:12 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Goiás gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling because they incorporate real-money incentives and forward-looking trader expectations. While polls capture voter sentiment at a single point in time, this market prices in anticipated campaign momentum, undecided voter behavior, and late-breaking developments. Traders betting on specific outcomes have financial motivation to research deeply and adjust positions as new information emerges. Comparing the leading candidate's odds here against recent public polls reveals whether the market is pricing in a tighter race, a stronger frontrunner, or shifts in voter preference that surveys may not yet fully reflect.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that sets odds based on the balance of buy and sell orders for each candidate contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome token trades between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the crowd's collective probability estimate. As traders buy a candidate's contract, its price rises; as they sell, it falls. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment in real time, with tighter spreads typically appearing during peak trading windows.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, once the gubernatorial election concludes and results are verified against credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which candidate receives the most votes and is declared the official winner by Brazilian electoral authorities. Traders holding contracts for the winning candidate receive their payout, while other positions expire worthless. The exact resolution timing depends on official certification of results, which typically occurs within days of election day as votes are counted and validated.
Major catalysts include new public opinion polls, candidate debates, campaign endorsements, and breaking political news that reshape voter preferences. Economic announcements, security incidents, or scandals involving any frontrunner can trigger sharp repricing. Media coverage and social media momentum often precede formal polling, giving traders early signals of shifting sentiment. Voter registration deadlines, early voting periods, and turnout forecasts also influence odds as they clarify the electorate's composition. Close to election day, final polls and exit polling expectations typically drive the most volatile trading as uncertainty narrows.
