TOTAL VOLUME:

$97.2b

24H VOL:

$177,903,386

24H TRANSACTIONS:

950,106,883

OPEN INTEREST:

$2,049,845,057

824,617

Markets across

14,701

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

899

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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GRVT FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Crypto
polymarket
predict

GRVT FDV above ___ one day after launch? Odds & Prediction Markets

Total volume:
$2,813,883
Volume 24h:
$54,793
83%
Liquidity:
$599,600
7%
Open interest:
$363,600N/A
PredictionHero
$50M 99%
predict
$50M 98%
polymarket
$100M 98%
predict
Feb 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Mar 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026Apr 2026May 2026May 2026May 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jun 2026Jul 202680859095100

GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?

99%chance
Amount

$

$20

$50

$100

$500

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 98.7¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 0.89% 534 days to resolution
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% | APY: 1% 534 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether GMGN, an AI trading platform, will launch an official governance or utility token with a fully diluted valuation exceeding $50 million exactly one day after its public debut. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Predict, the consensus probability stands at 98.9%. Resolution will be determined by the most liquid price source available for the GMGN token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following official launch, with launch confirmation sourced from official GMGN channels. Watch for the official launch announcement on GMGN's X account to trigger the one-day measurement window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms apply identical FDV calculation methodology, timing definition, token eligibility criteria, and deadline, with no material divergence in resolution logic.Primary resolution logic: Most liquid price source available for GMGN token at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following official launch; official GMGN channels (https://x.com/gmgnai) confirm launch status.

Core resolution logic:

  • FDV = total token supply multiplied by token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
  • Token must be officially launched by GMGN and actively, publicly tradable to qualify
  • Excluded token types: stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs (liquid staking tokens), and synthetic tokens
  • Resolution uses the most liquid price source available at the specified time
  • If no token launches by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET, all markets resolve to "No"

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Multiple token launches: If GMGN launches multiple tokens, only the official governance or utility token counts; other tokens or forks do not qualify.
  • Liquidity source unavailable: If the most liquid exchange is unavailable at 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day, use the next most liquid source; if no price data exists, market resolves to "No".
  • Token delisted before resolution: If the token is delisted or becomes untradable before 4:00 PM ET on the resolution day, the last available price from the most liquid source is used.
  • Deadline extension: The deadline is fixed at January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET; no extension is permitted. Any launch after this time results in "No" resolution.
Timing: Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following official GMGN token launch. If no launch occurs by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET, all markets resolve to "No" on that deadline date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GMGN's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by GMGN will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GMGN (https://x.com/gmgnai) doesn't launch a token by January 1, 2028, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Predict

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of GRVT's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If GRVT (https://x.com/grvt_io) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

The GRVT FDV above ___ one day after launch? dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across Polymarket and Predict, the two leading prediction markets for this event. It displays consensus probability estimates, cumulative trading volume of $2,813,883, and 24-hour activity of $54,869. By tracking both platforms simultaneously, the dashboard reveals how traders across different venues assess the likelihood of GRVT's fully diluted valuation exceeding specific thresholds within one day of its token launch. This cross-platform view helps traders identify market sentiment and spot pricing divergences.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Predict may price GRVT FDV outcomes differently due to distinct user bases, liquidity depths, and trading mechanics. Polymarket shows 98.0% probability for its top outcome, while Predict reflects 98.6%, a spread of 0.6 percentage points. Differences arise from varying fee structures, market depth, regional trader concentration, and the specific FDV thresholds each platform emphasizes. Lower liquidity on one venue may allow larger price swings, while different user demographics may hold divergent views on GRVT's launch momentum. Arbitrage traders exploit these gaps, gradually aligning prices over time.

The GRVT FDV above ___ one day after launch market resolves on Jan 1, 2028. Resolution hinges on verifying GRVT's fully diluted valuation exactly one day after its official token launch. The outcome is determined by comparing the FDV at that specific timestamp against the threshold specified in each market variant. Traders should monitor official GRVT announcements for precise launch timing, as the one-day window is measured from that moment. Resolution relies on transparent, on-chain or exchange-reported data to establish the FDV snapshot.

Key catalysts for GRVT FDV movement include the official launch date announcement, initial exchange listings and liquidity provision, major partnership or integration news, and broader crypto market sentiment shifts. Token unlock schedules, early investor lock-up terms, and community engagement metrics influence perceived scarcity and demand. Regulatory developments affecting the crypto sector, competitor token launches, and macroeconomic conditions also shape trader expectations. Social media momentum, influencer endorsements, and exchange feature placements can drive rapid valuation changes in the critical first 24 hours. Monitoring GRVT's official channels and market microstructure will help traders anticipate FDV trajectory.

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