TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 2:10 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the City of Glenorchy as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Polymarket
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the City of Glenorchy as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, assessing the relationship between prediction market probabilities and polling data for the Glenorchy mayoral race is challenging due to limited publicly available polling information. However, it's common to observe differences, as prediction markets reflect not only voter intentions but also informed speculation about campaign dynamics, fundraising, and potential unforeseen events. This market, like others, aggregates the collective wisdom of traders, potentially offering a distinct perspective from traditional polls which capture a snapshot of opinion at a specific time. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the incentives of participants in each system.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate's probability of winning the Glenorchy mayoral race. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all traders participating in the market, and the 24-hour volume indicates the level of activity and interest in the event. Total volume for this market is currently unavailable.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the Glenorchy mayoral election, as declared by the official election authorities, will determine the resolution. The market will settle to 100% for the winning candidate and 0% for all others. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand how this market will be settled.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Oct 28, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures, unexpected policy announcements by candidates, and shifts in public opinion revealed through new polling data are all potential catalysts. Additionally, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could lead to substantial price movements. Strong fundraising reports or key campaign events could also influence trader sentiment and shift the odds in the Glenorchy mayoral race.
