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GitHub.com critical incident by...?
polymarket

Will there be a critical GitHub incident?

Oct 30, 2026, 8:22 PM EST - Nov 13, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$230
Volume 24h:
$100N/A
Liquidity:
$156
10%
Open interest:
$90N/A

November 6

 - Polymarket

November 6 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 13, 2026

Time left: 04d:14h:12m

GitHub.com critical incident by November 6, 2026?

49%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 49% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

November 6

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 90¢No 93¢
83¢
$27
$190
0%
N/A
N/A
4d 14h 12m
Active
polymarket

November 13

Trade
75%
1%
Yes 94¢No 45¢
39¢
$129
$40
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 14h
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the GitHub outage market tracks the current odds of a critical incident occurring on GitHub.com by a specific date. You’ll find the implied probability of this event happening, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $120. The total volume traded in this market is $230. This allows traders to see how sentiment is shifting and how much capital is being allocated to different potential outcomes related to GitHub’s stability.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a significant probability of a critical incident impacting GitHub.com. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which indicate a lower risk of major disruptions due to GitHub’s robust infrastructure. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and real-time data than traditional analyst reports, potentially leading to differing assessments. It’s important to consider that this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, while analyst forecasts represent individual expert opinions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a GitHub.com critical incident. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective prediction of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability, as indicated by the share price, is 74.5%. Traders are actively adjusting their positions, contributing to the dynamic pricing of this market.

This market resolves around Nov 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether GitHub.com experiences a critical incident – defined as a significant disruption to core services – before that date. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information and widely accepted reports of any such incident, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the event’s occurrence.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding vulnerabilities discovered in GitHub’s infrastructure, reports of unusual network activity targeting GitHub, or announcements of major planned maintenance with a high risk of disruption could all move the odds. Furthermore, significant outages affecting similar platforms or broader cybersecurity threats could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected statements from GitHub leadership regarding system stability or potential risks could also be a catalyst for price changes in this market.