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GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?
polymarket

Will there be a critical GitHub Git Operations incident?

Volume:
$2,771

October 31

 - Polymarket

October 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 4:47 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 31

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,755
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

October 15

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,016
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incident is marked “Resolved”. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only an impact of Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. “Degraded Performance,” “Partial Outage,” or “Major Outage”) will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents that do not list Git Operations among their affected components, including incidents that list no affected components, will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incident is marked “Resolved”. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only an impact of Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. “Degraded Performance,” “Partial Outage,” or “Major Outage”) will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents that do not list Git Operations among their affected components, including incidents that list no affected components, will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the GitHub incident market tracks the current odds of various outcomes related to the nature of the critical incident. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $78. Total volume for this market is $2,588. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity surrounding potential causes of the incident, providing a real-time view of collective predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the GitHub incident. While analysts may provide qualitative assessments, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, translating diverse opinions into quantifiable probabilities. Discrepancies between market prices and expert opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on limited information, whereas this market continuously updates as new data emerges, potentially leading to more accurate predictions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the GitHub incident. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome being correct. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising prices and increased selling pressure lowering them. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the nature of the GitHub incident is verified against credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official statements from GitHub or widely accepted analyses from reputable technology news sources detailing the root cause of the disruption. The market will then determine which outcome, based on the initial question, best reflects the publicly available information regarding the incident’s cause and impact.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Official announcements from GitHub regarding the incident’s cause, severity, or estimated time to resolution would be major catalysts. Reports from credible cybersecurity news outlets offering insights into potential vulnerabilities or attack vectors could also influence trading activity. Unexpected escalations in the incident’s impact, such as widespread service outages or data breaches, would likely lead to shifts in probabilities, as would any statements from key figures involved in the investigation.