TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Description
This event tracks the outcome of a hypothetical congressional ballot survey conducted leading up to the November 2, 2026, election. The result depends on the final margin between two major political parties as measured by a specific polling methodology at a set time on election day. It reflects the collective voter preference between these parties at that precise moment.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if, at exactly 5:05 PM ET on November 2, 2026, the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (calculated as the difference between Democratic and Republican support, using a time-weighted average) falls within any of several predefined ranges: below 8.0%, exactly 8.0% through 8.6%, or above 8.6%. No matter where the margin falls within these ranges, the market will close in the affirmative. The resolution hinges entirely on the precise numerical value of the margin at the specified timestamp, with all possible outcomes covered by these mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive conditions.
