TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of a political survey over time leading up to an election. It focuses on the difference in support between two major groups as measured by the survey. The outcome depends on whether this difference exceeds a certain threshold at a specific date and time.
Kalshi
If the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) is above 8.1% at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Democrats will be up or down in the generic ballot. The price of these contracts reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and provide a real-time assessment of the political situation.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the final results of widely-respected, publicly available polls conducted between October 16th and October 23rd, 2024, determining whether Democrats are ahead or behind in the generic ballot. The final outcome will be determined by comparing the average result of these polls to a predetermined benchmark, reflecting the overall trend in voter preference during that period.
