TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 6:32 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Polymarket
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the French Socialist Primary. While polls aim to capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those outcomes. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, information asymmetry, or differing levels of confidence in candidates. It's important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have their limitations as indicators of the final result, and this market provides a unique data point for analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by organizers of the French Socialist Primary for the first round of voting. The candidate with the highest vote share will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders should monitor official announcements to understand the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly shift the odds in this market. Major endorsements from prominent Socialist figures, unexpected policy announcements from the candidates, or significant shifts in public opinion revealed through updated polling data could all influence trading activity. Any controversies or gaffes made by a candidate during debates or campaign events could also lead to changes in the market. Furthermore, any news regarding voter turnout or campaign financing could impact how traders assess the likelihood of each candidate’s success.
