TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$172,394,893
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,821,572,886
404,136
Markets across
40,075
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Les Républicains
- Polymarket
Les Républicains - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Oct 12, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 12, 12:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste. The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats. Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to which of the following three Senate groups holds the most French Senate seats as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST: the Groupe Les Républicains, the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), or the Groupe Union Centriste. The seat count for each group will be its total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as one of the three listed groups if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes the listed group's name or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the listed group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the listed group, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If two of the listed groups merge with each other, the merged group will be treated as the listed group that held more seats before the September 27, 2026 election, and the other listed group will be treated as holding no seats. If a listed group ceases to exist, it will be treated as holding no seats. Groups will be primarily ranked by number of seats on October 12, 2026. If two or more groups are tied on seat count, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the groups' listed names. This market will resolve to the group that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. If the groups' composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the group's listed name that comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through buying and selling shares that represent possible outcomes. The current implied probability reflects the collective judgment of participants about which party or coalition is most likely to win the most seats. Market depth and liquidity, measured by a volume of $3,702, help determine how sensitive prices are to new information or shifts in trader sentiment leading up to Sep 28, 2026.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final tally of seats won by each party will settle all positions, bringing clarity to traders who have positioned themselves based on earlier predictions and emerging trends throughout the campaign period.
Several key signals could shift probabilities in this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major political announcements, including policy shifts or controversies involving leading candidates, often cause rapid adjustments. Polling updates closer to the election date are another critical driver, as they reshape trader expectations about voter preferences. Additionally, broader economic developments or international events that influence voter sentiment may impact betting patterns. Media coverage highlighting key issues or scandals can also sway market sentiment. Any surprise changes in candidate availability or coalition formations would likely produce sharp movements in this market as traders reassess the odds.
