TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 6:52 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the implied probability on Polymarket suggests a certain level of expectation regarding the timing of Flávio Bolsonaro’s return. It's important to note that prediction market odds represent a different form of data than traditional polls. Polls capture stated opinions, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to wager on the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like information asymmetry, strategic betting, and differing levels of conviction about the event. Comparing these predictions to expert analysis and news reports can offer a more comprehensive understanding of the situation.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of Flávio Bolsonaro returning to Brazil by the specified date. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is driven purely by supply and demand, with no external factors influencing the valuation beyond trader sentiment and available information.
This market resolves around Apr 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether verifiable evidence demonstrates that Flávio Bolsonaro has physically returned to Brazilian territory before the resolution date. This will be assessed based on publicly available information, such as official travel records, news reports from reputable sources, and documented border crossings. The focus is on objective verification of his physical presence within Brazil’s borders.
Several events could significantly impact the price of this market. Any legal developments concerning Flávio Bolsonaro, such as indictments, appeals, or court rulings, would likely cause a shift in probabilities. Official statements from Bolsonaro himself or his legal team regarding his travel plans would also be a key catalyst. Furthermore, major political events in Brazil or changes in the political climate could influence perceptions of his ability or willingness to return. Unexpected developments in his legal defense strategy or changes to travel restrictions could also move this market.
