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Florida Republican Governor primary: Byron Donalds vote percent
Elections
kalshi

Florida Republican Governor primary: Byron Donalds vote percent

Volume:
$604,646

At least 45%

 - Kalshi

At least 45% - Kalshi

100%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

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Neutral

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Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$1.2k

·

Resolved Aug 27, 2026

Closed: Aug 26, 9:06 PM EST

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Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether Byron Donalds will receive at least 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary on Kalshi, with resolution based on certified vote percentages. The current probability for the leading outcome is 99.0%, while the second outcome, requiring at least 50% of the vote, stands at 1.0%. The result will be determined following the certified election results, with the primary election date scheduled for August 18, 2027.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the certified percentage of popular votes received by Byron Donalds in the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100. Each market resolves Yes if Donalds achieves or exceeds its specified threshold (50%, 55%, 60%, 65%, 70%, 75%, or 80%), and No otherwise. Only certified official results are used; preliminary results do not count. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results, while invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple voting rounds occur (such as ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the first round unless otherwise specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, all markets resolve to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The Byron Donalds Florida gubernatorial vote share market on Kalshi tracks real-time trader positions and pricing on what percentage of votes Byron Donalds will receive in the Florida Republican Governor primary. The dashboard displays current odds, historical price movements, and trading activity to help you monitor how the market is pricing his expected performance. This live data reflects collective trader sentiment as new information and campaign developments emerge throughout the race.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate a broader set of signals—campaign momentum, fundraising, endorsements, and ground-level dynamics—beyond what a single poll captures. While polls measure voter preference at a snapshot in time, this market aggregates ongoing trader bets on the actual outcome. Comparing the two can reveal whether the market is pricing in expectations that polls have not yet reflected, making prediction markets a complementary lens for understanding the race.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to Donalds's final vote percentage. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on the outcome, and the price reflects the collective willingness of buyers and sellers to trade at that level. As new information surfaces, traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down to reflect changing expectations about his vote share.

This market resolves around Aug 18, 2027, once the Florida Republican Governor primary election has concluded and results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by Donalds's actual vote share as officially reported. Until that date, traders can continue to adjust positions based on campaign developments, polling shifts, and other factors that may influence the final tally.

Major catalysts include debate performances, endorsements from prominent Republican figures, shifts in polling data, campaign spending announcements, and media coverage of Donalds's platform or record. Primary turnout expectations, voter registration trends, and developments affecting the broader Florida political landscape can also shift trader sentiment. Late-breaking news about competing candidates or changes in the race dynamics may trigger sharp repricing as traders reassess his path to victory and likely vote share.