TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?
- Polymarket
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:02h:21m
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?
$
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?
Description
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
Polymarket
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, the current odds reflect trader sentiment about the GA-04 House race. These odds can diverge from polling averages for several reasons, including real-time reactions to campaign developments, fund-raising reports, or shifts in voter registration that polls may not capture immediately. While polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, prediction markets incorporate betting behavior that may price in information or expectations not yet reflected in survey data. As the election approaches, this market’s odds may converge or remain distinct from polling trends depending on new information flow and betting dynamics.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set the odds through buying and selling contracts tied to potential outcomes in the GA-04 House race. The current top outcome shows a chance of 95.0%, derived from the collective bets placed. Volume of $112 over the last 24 hours indicates trader interest and liquidity. Price movements reflect new information such as candidate debates, endorsements, or shifts in local polling that traders interpret as affecting the likelihood of each possible result.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is determined by official vote tallies, and the market settles accordingly based on publicly available data from authoritative news sources and government records.
Several signals could shift odds in this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major developments like candidate debates, controversies, advertising spend revelations, or changes in voter registration statistics often prompt rapid repricing. Endorsements from influential figures or organizations, as well as fund-raising reports showing unexpected cash advantages, may also affect trader sentiment. As the election date nears, local polling updates and media coverage focusing on key issues in the GA-04 House race can cause noticeable swings in this market’s pricing.
