TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 7:20 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks which candidate will secure the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election in Brazil. Currently, Polymarket gives Bia Kicis a 98.5% probability of winning the second-most votes, while Erika Kokay is at 0.4%. The market will resolve based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) at www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes. Keep an eye on the official candidate lists published by the TSE following the election on October 4, 2026, as these will determine the final vote counts and ultimately resolve this market.
Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through trader activity, where participants buy and sell shares representing possible outcomes. The current probability reflects the balance of buy and sell orders, with liquidity influencing how quickly prices adjust. Traders’ expectations, news events, and campaign developments drive fluctuations, making the market a dynamic indicator of perceived likelihoods for each potential result.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are officially declared and verifiable from credible public reporting. The second-place finisher will be determined by the certified vote tallies, and the market will close based on that verified ranking. No internal platform mechanisms or external validations beyond publicly confirmed data are involved in setting the final result.
Key debates, polling shifts, economic announcements, and candidate endorsements could all influence this market as the election approaches. Any major news — such as scandals, policy releases, or changes in voter sentiment — may cause traders to reassess probabilities. Additionally, unexpected turnout trends or regional voting patterns could also shift market expectations, especially if they suggest a competitive race that impacts who finishes second.
