TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:50 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
This market often reflects polling trends but can diverge due to trader sentiment, fundraising news, or campaign events. Currently, the leading candidate shows a strong edge, similar to recent polls, but prediction markets may price in different probabilities than public surveys. Watch for shifts when new polls drop or major events occur, as this market tends to react quickly to any information that could affect the election outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner is determined by official vote counts, and the market settles based on who receives the most votes in the Federal District Senate race. No additional criteria or external data sources are needed beyond the publicly reported results.
Debate performance, polling updates, fundraising announcements, and endorsements can all shift this market. Any event that changes voter perception or campaign momentum — such as a major scandal, policy shift, or media coverage — may cause rapid price movements. Additionally, trader sentiment reacting to national political trends or regional issues specific to the Federal District can also influence odds before the election.
