TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Federal District Governor Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the Federal District Governor election?

Volume:
$41,454

Celina Leão

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 25, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 10:44 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Celina Leão

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,123
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Celina Leão

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,274
N/A
N/A
$2,239
2mo 3w
Yes
polymarket

Arruda

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,114
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Arruda

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$207
N/A
N/A
$171
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Leandro Grass

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,190
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Leandro Grass

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$670
N/A
N/A
$670
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Elisson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Elisson

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Expedito Mendonça

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$927
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Expedito Mendonça

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Cappelli

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$918
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cappelli

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Professor Robson

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$884
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Professor Robson

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Paula Belmonte

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$806
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Paula Belmonte

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Professora Samara Mineiro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Professora Samara Mineiro

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Kiko Caputo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kiko Caputo

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w
No
polymarket

Placeholder 1

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 2

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 3

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 4

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Placeholder 5

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 37

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election in Brazil. The election is expected to take place in October 2026, potentially with a runoff in November if no candidate secures a majority in the first round. The markets resolve based on the official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the same event: determining the winner of the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election based on official results.Primary resolution logic: Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' for the candidate who wins the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election.
  • Official results from the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE) are the definitive source for determining the winner.
  • Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed before the election are not considered.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Runoff Election: If no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, a runoff election will occur. The market will resolve based on the winner of the runoff election.
  • Delayed Results: If the election result is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket will resolve to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify a similar cutoff, but the TSE is the ultimate source.
  • Placeholder Candidates: Markets include placeholder candidates. These markets will only resolve to 'Yes' if the placeholder candidate actually wins the election.
Timing: The market will resolve upon the official announcement of the election results by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (TSE), expected in October or November 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Kalshi

If Arruda wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Cappelli wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Celina Leão wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Elisson wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Expedito Mendonça wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kiko Caputo wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Leandro Grass wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Paula Belmonte wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Professor Robson wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Professora Samara Mineiro wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Rico Pinheiro wins the 2026 Brazilian Federal District gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the outcome of the Federal District Governor election by aggregating trading volume and implied probabilities from both platforms. Currently, the consensus view suggests a strong likelihood for a particular candidate, with a combined volume of $41,454 across both venues. This provides a real-time assessment of expectations, distinct from traditional polling data. The 24-hour volume is $554, indicating active trading and evolving sentiment surrounding this election. The dashboard offers a unique perspective on the potential winner of the election.

Prediction market odds, like those reflected in this market, often incorporate information beyond traditional polls. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are *willing to bet* on, potentially factoring in strategic considerations, hidden information, and perceived poll inaccuracies. Polling averages can be useful, but they don't always account for the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect seen in prediction markets. It’s important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses, and looking at both can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the election dynamics. This market offers a forward-looking view, influenced by a diverse range of participants.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant shifts in polling data, and unexpected campaign events could all influence trader sentiment. Any controversies involving candidates, changes in economic conditions affecting the Federal District, or high-profile debates could also lead to price movements. Furthermore, news regarding voter turnout or potential challenges to the election process could also cause fluctuations. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market as we approach the resolution date.