TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

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Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
predict
polymarket

What will Fed decisions be by Jan 27?

Sep 30, 2026, 9:04 AM EST - Jan 27, 2027, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$46,474
Volume 24h:
$12,910
397%
Liquidity:
$52,766
4%
Open interest:
$12,022N/A

Pause-Hike-Pause

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 27, 2027

Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?

56%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 74¢ buys you 135 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $135 | Net Profit: $35 Multiplier: 1.35x | ROI: 35% | APY: 188% 104 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Pause-Hike-Pause

Trade
56%
2%
Yes 74¢No 61¢
35¢
$3,111
$121
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
polymarket

Pause-Hike-Pause

Trade
47%
11%
Yes 48¢No 54¢
2¢
$4,959
$29,309
34%
97%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
47%
Yes 61¢No 57.5¢
Avg: 18.5¢Max: 35¢
polymarket

Pause-Hike-Hike

Trade
21%
9%
Yes 22¢No 81¢
3¢
$4,393
$11,079
39%
51%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

Pause-Hike-Hike

Trade
N/A
N/A
62¢
$1,773
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
20.5%
Yes 22¢No 81¢
Avg: 32.5¢Max: 62¢
polymarket

Hike-Hike-Pause

Trade
10%
7%
Yes 10.1¢No 90¢
0.1¢
$4,221
$719
78%
101%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

Hike-Hike-Pause

Trade
N/A
N/A
74¢
$2,029
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
10.1%
Yes 10.1¢No 90¢
Avg: 37.1¢Max: 74¢
polymarket

Hike-Hike-Hike

Trade
6%
2%
Yes 7.8¢No 95¢
2.8¢
$4,076
$646
233%
233%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

Hike-Hike-Hike

Trade
N/A
N/A
95¢
$1,993
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
6.4%
Yes 7.8¢No 95¢
Avg: 48.9¢Max: 95¢
predict

Pause-Pause-Pause

Trade
10%
Yes 10¢No 90¢
—
$69
$41
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
polymarket

Pause-Pause-Pause

Trade
5%
Yes 9¢No 95.5¢
—
$3,302
$894
38%
116%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
4.7%
Yes 9.5¢No 92.8¢
Avg: —Max: —
polymarket

Hike-Pause-Hike

Trade
3%
Yes 5.8¢No 99.6¢
5.4¢
$3,407
$794
21%
33%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

Hike-Pause-Hike

Trade
N/A
N/A
90¢
$2,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.1%
Yes 5.8¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 47.7¢Max: 90¢
polymarket

Hike-Pause-Pause

Trade
3%
Yes 5.1¢No 99.5¢
4.6¢
$3,883
$925
17%
104%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

Hike-Pause-Pause

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
$1,973
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.8%
Yes 5.1¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 4.3¢Max: 4.6¢
polymarket

Other

Trade
2%
5%
Yes 3.6¢No 99.4¢
3¢
$4,031
$1,370
211%
211%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

Other

Trade
N/A
N/A
77¢
$2,076
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.1%
Yes 3.6¢No 99.4¢
Avg: 40¢Max: 77¢
polymarket

Pause-Pause-Hike

Trade
1%
3%
Yes 2¢No 99.6¢
1.6¢
$3,415
$578
12%
12%
N/A
3mo 2w
active
predict

Pause-Pause-Hike

Trade
N/A
N/A
89¢
$2,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 2w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.2%
Yes 2¢No 99.6¢
Avg: 45.3¢Max: 89¢
Total markets: 18

Description

This event group forecasts the sequence of interest rate decisions made by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) over three meetings: October, December, and January. The core question revolves around whether the Fed will hike rates, pause rates, or potentially cut rates at each meeting.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict define resolution identically based on the FOMC's target federal funds rate and categorize outcomes as 'hike', 'pause', or 'other' (including cuts).Primary resolution logic: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution depends on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
  • A 'hike' is defined as an increase in the rate.
  • A 'pause' is defined as no change in the rate.
  • Any rate cut, or a combination of decisions not explicitly listed, resolves to 'Other'.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Emergency Rate Changes: Emergency rate changes outside of the scheduled FOMC meetings will not be considered for resolution.
  • Tie: The markets do not appear to define a tie-breaking mechanism. In the unlikely event of ambiguity, the prevailing market consensus will be used.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the January 26-27, 2024 FOMC meeting, when the final decision in the sequence is known.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Predict

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Predict, this dashboard tracks the collective predictions on the Federal Reserve policy market. It aggregates trading volume of $46,474 (with $12,908 traded in the last 24 hours) across both platforms to provide a consensus view of expectations regarding future Fed decisions. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? at 47.0%, while Predict leans toward Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? at 56.0%. This allows users to see where the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ currently stands on potential interest rate adjustments and monetary policy shifts.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by institutional biases or public statements, while this market reflects the aggregated wisdom of a diverse group of traders directly incentivized to predict correctly. While not always aligned, comparing the implied probabilities in this market to those presented by financial institutions can reveal areas of consensus or disagreement regarding the Federal Reserve's likely course of action. This can provide a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.

Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Predict on the Federal Reserve policy market can arise from several factors. Different user bases on each platform may have varying beliefs and access to information, influencing their trading behavior. Trading volume also plays a role; a market with higher volume on one platform tends to have more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and available liquidity on Polymarket versus Predict can lead to temporary price differences. These variations reflect the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the differing perspectives of traders.

This market resolves around Jan 27, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the Federal Reserve’s official announcements regarding its monetary policy decisions during the specified October-January timeframe. The outcome will reflect the sequence of rate adjustments made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) during those meetings. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and how it aligns with their predictions after this date.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected economic data releases, such as inflation reports or employment figures, are likely to cause price fluctuations. Statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding future policy intentions will also be closely watched. Geopolitical events or unexpected shocks to the financial system could also influence trader sentiment and shift the probabilities. Any indication of a change in the Fed’s outlook on the economy will likely be reflected in the trading activity of this market.