Name: Fear & Greed Index on Oct 16, 2026?
Start: 2026-09-21T14:01:00.000Z
End: 2026-10-23T20:00:00.000Z

Question 1

What does the Fear & Greed Index market dashboard track?

Accepted Answer

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Fear & Greed Index market tracks the current price, price history, and 24-hour volume. You can see how traders are positioning themselves on whether the index will be at a specific level on October 16, 2026. The 24-hour volume is currently $5,965, and the total volume traded to date is $25,613. This allows you to gauge market interest and how quickly opinions are changing as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective prediction.

Question 2

How do prediction market odds compare to analyst forecasts?

Accepted Answer

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as those are varied and often qualitative. However, the price action in this market can be seen as a distillation of many individual opinions, effectively creating a weighted aggregate forecast. If analysts are generally bullish on the economic outlook, we might expect to see the price of contracts predicting a higher Fear & Greed Index increase. Conversely, bearish sentiment would likely lead to downward price pressure in this market.

Question 3

How is this market priced on Kalshi?

Accepted Answer

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and the market price reflects the highest bid and lowest offer. Traders are essentially betting on their expectation of where the Fear & Greed Index will be on the specified date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the traders on the platform. Higher prices indicate greater confidence in that outcome, while lower prices suggest more uncertainty.

Question 4

When does this market resolve, and what determines the outcome?

Accepted Answer

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official Fear & Greed Index value as published by CNN Business on October 16, 2026. The specific value at the close of trading on that day will determine which contracts pay out and which expire worthless. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payout (if any) shortly after the official index value is released.

Question 5

What signals or events could move this market between now and resolution?

Accepted Answer

Several economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in inflation rates, interest rate decisions by central banks, and unexpected economic recessions or booms could all influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the Fear & Greed Index. Significant geopolitical events, such as major conflicts or political instability, could also drive volatility. Any news that dramatically alters the perceived risk appetite of investors has the potential to move the price of contracts in this market.

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