TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 10:41 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Polymarket
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data for the Espírito Santo governor race. While polls attempt to gauge voter intentions at a specific point in time, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential influencing factors. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the ability of market participants to react quickly to new developments. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion on the election outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the electoral authorities in Espírito Santo. The candidate who receives the most votes in the election will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand how this market will be settled.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major endorsements from influential political figures, significant shifts in polling data, and unexpected campaign controversies could all impact trader sentiment. Economic news related to Espírito Santo, such as changes in unemployment rates or key industry performance, could also play a role. Additionally, any unforeseen events that affect the candidates' public image or campaign strategies could lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market.
