TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 5:06 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The second round of the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the second round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Espírito Santo gubernatorial election as published by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than traditional polling averages for the Espírito Santo gubernatorial election. While polls suggest a close race, this market indicates a stronger likelihood of a decisive victory for one candidate. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information than polls alone, such as local knowledge and real-time events. This can lead to discrepancies between the two, as traders weigh various factors not captured in standard surveys.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Espírito Santo gubernatorial election. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading it.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Espírito Santo gubernatorial election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official margin of victory declared by the electoral authorities. Traders will then be paid out based on their holdings in the market, reflecting whether their predictions aligned with the actual election results. The final outcome will be determined by the official vote count.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major endorsements from influential political figures, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling, and any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could all impact trading activity. Additionally, significant economic news or events specific to Espírito Santo could influence voter sentiment and, consequently, the market price. Any unforeseen developments in the campaign could lead to substantial changes in the odds as traders react to new information.
