TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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ESPN App Downloads in September
kalshi

ESPN App Downloads in September

Volume:
$83,874

Above 35

 - Kalshi

Above 35 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 8, 2026

Closed: Oct 7, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 35

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,003
N/A
N/A
$7,675
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 25

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,635
N/A
N/A
$3,173
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 15

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,768
N/A
N/A
$2,769
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,589
N/A
N/A
$2,329
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 65

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,207
N/A
N/A
$4,414
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 45

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,021
N/A
N/A
$9,256
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 55

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,367
N/A
N/A
$6,774
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 95

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,204
N/A
N/A
$2,604
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,154
N/A
N/A
$4,825
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 40

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,126
N/A
N/A
$3,853
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 75

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,400
N/A
N/A
$1,400
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 85

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,400
N/A
N/A
$1,400
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This set of markets tracks the performance of the ESPN app in September 2026, focusing on how its download numbers compare to the same month in the previous year. The outcomes depend on whether the year-over-year growth rate exceeds various thresholds, reflecting different levels of user engagement and market interest.

Kalshi

These markets evaluate whether the Carbon Arc ESPN: Live Sports & Scores App Downloads index for September 2026 exceeds specified thresholds. The index is a year-over-year measurement where a value of 100 indicates equal downloads compared to September of the prior year, values above 100 signify growth, and values below 100 indicate a decline. All markets resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for September 2026, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded for settlement purposes. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (e.g., above 15, above 25, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the reported index surpasses its respective threshold. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with ESPN or the data provider, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the ESPN app download market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $15,238. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different download outcomes for the ESPN app during September. The view is specific to Kalshi, reflecting its own user activity and market depth without combining data from any other venue.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for ESPN app downloads. While analysts may incorporate broader trends and historical data, traders adjust prices based on real-time sentiment, recent performance, and emerging news. This can lead to divergence, especially around key events or surprises in user behavior that analysts might not anticipate as quickly.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on official download statistics from recognized sources, ensuring an objective and transparent close to trading activity. No further trading will occur after this date, and all positions settle based on the verified result.

Several signals could shift this market before it closes, including major sports events that drive user engagement, updates to the ESPN app that improve or reduce its appeal, seasonal usage patterns, and any publicity surrounding download incentives or features. News about competitor apps, changes in user interface, or technical performance issues may also influence trader sentiment and adjust the odds significantly as Oct 15, 2026 approaches.