TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 2:30 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 90 and 114 tweets on X (formerly Twitter) between October 8 and October 10, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome an 88.0% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 115 to 139 tweets – is at 7.8%. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to October 10, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will resolve based on his total tweet count during the specified timeframe.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 8 12:00 PM ET to October 10, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting the future tweet count of an individual is not a typical polling subject. However, the market reflects collective intelligence, aggregating the beliefs of many traders. If public sentiment, as measured by polls regarding Elon Musk’s online activity or general public interest in his statements, shifts significantly, we would expect to see corresponding movements in this market. The current pricing suggests a different outlook than general public opinion might indicate.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing system that constantly adjusts to new information and changing perspectives on Elon Musk's potential tweeting activity.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 8th and October 10th, 2026, will be the determining factor. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his posts during that specific timeframe. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, based on verifiable data.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any announcements from Elon Musk regarding his social media usage, changes to the X platform, or major world events that might influence his online activity could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected news related to his companies, such as Tesla or SpaceX, could also cause fluctuations. Furthermore, shifts in public discourse surrounding Musk or his views could also move the market, as traders react to perceived changes in his likely behavior leading up to Oct 10, 2026.
