TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 90 and 114 times on X (formerly Twitter) from October 31 to November 2, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 100.0% probability, while the alternative – that he will post between 165 and 189 times – is at 0.2%. The market resolves based on the count of main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts from the official @elonmusk account, as detailed on https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Elon Musk’s posting activity leading up to November 2, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will be settled.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 31 12:00 PM ET to November 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling data, as predicting future tweet volume isn't a common subject for polls. However, analyzing public sentiment towards Elon Musk and his typical social media activity could offer a point of comparison. If analysts predict a period of increased or decreased engagement, it will be interesting to see if those expectations align with the probabilities reflected in this market. Discrepancies between market prices and external expectations can present potential trading opportunities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in different outcomes. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing system that aggregates the collective wisdom of the crowd, offering a real-time assessment of the potential tweet count.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 31 and November 2, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his posts during that specific timeframe. The exact number of tweets will determine which outcome—and therefore which shares—will pay out, as defined by the market’s parameters.
Several factors could significantly influence the price action in this market. Major news events involving Elon Musk or X, changes to X’s policies regarding posting frequency, or even Musk’s own stated intentions regarding his social media usage could all serve as catalysts. Unexpected announcements about new projects or controversies could also lead to increased or decreased tweeting activity. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on Musk’s behavior will be key to understanding movements in this market.
