TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?

Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$894,525
Volume 24h:
$298,933
74%
Liquidity:
$153,089
46%
Open interest:
$121,045N/A

340-359

 - Polymarket

340-359 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:10h:57m

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

14%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 14¢ buys you 714 shares | Odds: 14% Total Payout: $714 | Net Profit: $614 Multiplier: 7.14x | ROI: 614% APY not meaningful 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

340-359

Trade
14%
2%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
$9,193
$34,418
47%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

360-379

Trade
14%
1%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
$7,297
$29,563
66%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

380-399

Trade
12%
Yes 12.3¢No 88¢
0.3¢
$6,226
$33,764
75%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

320-339

Trade
12%
6%
Yes 13¢No 89¢
2¢
$6,393
$52,548
50%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

300-319

Trade
11%
5%
Yes 11¢No 90¢
1¢
$5,705
$37,250
31%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

400-419

Trade
10%
2%
Yes 9.9¢No 90.6¢
0.5¢
$5,220
$31,727
81%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

280-299

Trade
6%
3%
Yes 6.7¢No 94.2¢
0.9¢
$6,144
$34,315
41%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

420-439

Trade
6%
4%
Yes 5.9¢No 94.4¢
0.3¢
$4,620
$31,570
84%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

260-279

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 3.1¢No 97¢
0.1¢
$4,984
$38,033
30%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

440-459

Trade
3%
4%
Yes 3.2¢No 97.2¢
0.4¢
$3,931
$30,657
74%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

460-479

Trade
2%
3%
Yes 2.2¢No 98¢
0.2¢
$4,239
$27,139
84%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

240-259

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98.2¢
0.3¢
$5,127
$45,293
51%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

220-239

Trade
2%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.4¢
0.1¢
$7,447
$46,833
45%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

480-499

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 98.9¢
0.2¢
$4,489
$23,999
64%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

200-219

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.3¢
0.7¢
$5,744
$40,417
28%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

500-519

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.2¢
0.1¢
$4,876
$25,686
56%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

580+

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.4¢
0.1¢
$4,240
$45,826
54%
458,164%
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

520-539

Trade
1%
2%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.6¢
0.2¢
$5,482
$29,625
66%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

540-559

Trade
0%
1%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$6,292
$26,713
70%
267,032%
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

160-179

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$18,627
$36,827
31%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

180-199

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$20,030
$66,369
52%
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

560-579

Trade
0%
1%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$6,781
$32,128
60%
321,180%
N/A
3d 10h 57m
Active
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,791
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,004
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
No
polymarket

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,020
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 10h 57m
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 360 and 379 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and November 6, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 14.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – that he will post between 340 and 359 times – is at 13.5%. The market resolves based on the post count from his account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch the activity on Elon Musk’s X account leading up to November 6, 2026, as that is the final date for counting posts within the event window and will determine market resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 30 12:00 PM ET to November 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, the volume is $271,298, with total volume reaching $894,525. Users can view how the implied probability of different outcomes has shifted over time, providing insight into market sentiment. The dashboard also displays the top outcome and its associated probability, allowing traders to quickly assess the prevailing expectations for the number of tweets Elon Musk will post between October 30th and November 6th, 2026.

Comparing prediction market odds to polling averages reveals how collective intelligence differs from traditional surveys. While polls capture stated opinions, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* on, often considered a more truthful indicator. Currently, the market's implied probability differs from recent polling data regarding public expectations for Elon Musk's social media activity. This divergence suggests that traders believe factors not fully captured in polls – such as Musk’s business priorities or current events – will significantly influence his tweeting behavior during the specified timeframe.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements. The market’s efficiency is driven by the incentive to accurately predict the event, as successful traders profit from correctly anticipating the outcome of the Elon Musk tweet count.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 30th and November 6th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be determined by an independent assessment of his official X account activity during that period. The market will settle based on this verified tweet count, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who participated in this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Elon Musk regarding X, his companies (Tesla, SpaceX, etc.), or his personal life could all influence his tweeting activity. Unexpected world events, political developments, or controversies involving Musk are also likely to impact the market. Changes in his personal priorities or a shift in his social media strategy could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Any news that alters perceptions of his likely engagement on X between October 30th and November 6th, 2026, will likely be reflected in trading volume and price changes.