TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 2:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 140-164 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 99.6% probability. The second most likely outcome, that Musk will post between 165-189 times during that same period, is at 0.3%. The market resolves based on the post count from his account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to October 31, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and final resolution of this market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 29 12:00 PM ET to October 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data on the potential volume of Elon Musk’s tweets. While polls capture stated intentions, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, as prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting through financial reward. It’s common to see prediction markets diverge from polls, especially when strong biases or uncertainties are present in the underlying event. The market aggregates information from a diverse set of forecasters, potentially offering a more nuanced view than a single poll.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome, and the price of those shares reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if more people believe Musk will tweet a high number, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts towards a lower tweet count, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the collective wisdom of traders.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 29th and October 31st, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his tweets during that specific timeframe. The platform will verify the information against reliable sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor news sources leading up to the resolution date for updates.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any announcements from Elon Musk regarding his social media usage, or changes to his posting habits, would be key catalysts. Major news events that capture his attention and prompt responses could also drive increased tweeting. Furthermore, developments related to X (formerly Twitter) itself, such as new features or controversies, might influence his activity. Shifts in public sentiment towards Musk, or significant events impacting his companies, could also move the market as traders adjust their expectations.
