TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

Elon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?

Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,377,211
Volume 24h:
$1,063,677
99%
Liquidity:
$176,925
57%
Open interest:
$215,731N/A

380-399

 - Polymarket

380-399 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 18h:35m:36s

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?

45%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 45.9¢ buys you 218 shares | Odds: 45% Total Payout: $218 | Net Profit: $118 Multiplier: 2.18x | ROI: 118% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

380-399

Trade
45%
27%
Yes 45.9¢No 55¢
0.9¢
$5,322
$174,814
80%
3,059%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

360-379

Trade
32%
Yes 33.2¢No 69.2¢
2.4¢
$4,696
$163,070
75%
7,157%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

400-419

Trade
16%
4%
Yes 15.7¢No 84.7¢
0.4¢
$7,310
$136,156
55%
4,097%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

420-439

Trade
5%
14%
Yes 5.6¢No 95¢
0.6¢
$10,114
$104,399
83%
3,082%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

340-359

Trade
3%
3%
Yes 2.7¢No 97.6¢
0.3¢
$10,596
$208,355
75%
5,174%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

440-459

Trade
2%
13%
Yes 1.7¢No 98.6¢
0.3¢
$8,466
$115,562
67%
3,176%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

460-479

Trade
1%
11%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.5¢
0.2¢
$12,523
$85,325
65%
2,340%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

480-499

Trade
0%
7%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$19,625
$125,996
89%
3,579%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

500-519

Trade
0%
4%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$20,397
$136,012
79%
2,438%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

580+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$12,514
$110,252
76%
1,510%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

520-539

Trade
0%
2%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$21,770
$88,120
78%
2,438%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

540-559

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$19,161
$78,050
75%
2,363%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

560-579

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$24,432
$73,466
58%
2,450%
N/A
18h 35m
Active
polymarket

320-339

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$160,521
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

300-319

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$101,985
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

280-299

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$94,468
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

260-279

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$69,674
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

240-259

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55,767
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

220-239

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,615
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

180-199

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,346
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

80-99

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

200-219

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

160-179

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,903
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

140-159

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,783
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
polymarket

120-139

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,059
N/A
N/A
N/A
18h 35m
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Intro

This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 380 and 399 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and November 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 49.7% probability. The second most likely outcome, that Musk will post between 360 and 379 times during that same period, is priced at 22.1%. The market resolves based on the post count from his account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch the activity on Musk’s X account as the November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET deadline approaches, as that marks the end of the betting period and the time at which the market will resolve.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 27 12:00 PM ET to November 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Elon Musk tweet count market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume stands at $679,141 and total volume is $2,377,211. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes regarding the number of tweets Elon Musk will post between October 27th and November 3rd, 2026. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to this specific event.

Comparing prediction market odds to polling averages reveals interesting insights into collective belief. While polls capture stated opinions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional polls, especially for events with clear, quantifiable outcomes. This is because trading incentives align with accurate forecasting. However, it’s important to remember that polls and this market measure different things – stated preference versus revealed preference – and discrepancies can arise based on factors like information asymmetry and strategic behavior.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd, constantly updating as new information becomes available and influencing trading decisions.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 27th and November 3rd, 2026, will be the determining factor. This count will be sourced from publicly available data and verified against reliable sources to ensure accuracy. The resolution will establish the final outcome for this market, settling all outstanding trades based on the actual tweet count during that period.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Changes in Elon Musk's posting habits, announcements regarding his schedule or priorities, or major news events that might influence his online activity could all impact trading. Additionally, any statements Musk makes about his future social media usage, or changes to the X platform itself, could shift market sentiment. Unexpected events, such as significant world events or personal announcements, could also lead to increased trading volume and price fluctuations in this market.