TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 90 and 114 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 26th and October 28th, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 93.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 115 to 139 posts in the same timeframe – is at 6.3%. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to October 28, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will resolve based on his total post count during the specified window.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 26 12:00 PM ET to October 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to polling averages reveals how collective intelligence differs from traditional surveys. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what people are willing to *stake* on the outcome. If polls consistently show a different expectation for Elon Musk’s tweeting activity than the implied probability within this market, it suggests traders possess unique information or interpret available data differently than those surveyed. Discrepancies can arise from factors like strategic trading and a more informed participant base.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the aggregated wisdom of the crowd. The market’s price is influenced by news events, Elon Musk’s past tweeting behavior, and any relevant announcements that might affect his activity during the specified timeframe. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on his verified X (formerly Twitter) account between October 26th and October 28th, 2026, inclusive. The final count will be sourced from publicly available data and verified to ensure accuracy. The market will then settle based on which outcome range the final tweet count falls within, as defined by the market’s contract.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any announcements from Elon Musk regarding changes to his social media usage, or statements about his planned activity during that period, would likely impact trading. Major news events that capture his attention and prompt a response could also shift the odds. Unexpected technological disruptions affecting X, or changes to the platform’s policies, could influence his tweeting behavior. Finally, broader political or economic events could indirectly affect his activity and, consequently, the price action in this market.
