TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 2:02 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 65 and 89 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and October 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 62.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – that he posts between 90 and 114 times – is at 36.0%. The market resolves based on the post count from his account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch closely for any announcements or changes in Musk’s posting habits leading up to the resolution date of October 26, 2026, which marks the end of the betting period for this market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 24 12:00 PM ET to October 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to polling averages for this type of event is challenging, as traditional polls often struggle to accurately gauge future behavior. While polls can reflect current sentiment, this market represents a forward-looking assessment of Elon Musk’s likely tweeting activity. Polling data may offer a baseline expectation, but the market incorporates a wider range of information and incentivizes accurate predictions. The collective wisdom of traders often proves more accurate than static polls, especially when anticipating events influenced by individual actions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current trading volume of $617,510 suggests a moderate level of activity and interest in this particular market.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on his official X (formerly Twitter) account between October 24th and October 26th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his posts during that specific timeframe. The exact number of tweets will determine which outcome is considered correct, and shares will be settled accordingly. The market’s resolution is independent of any subjective interpretation.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Changes in Elon Musk’s posting habits in the years leading up to 2026, announcements regarding his priorities or commitments, or major news events that might influence his social media activity could all have an impact. Unexpected technological developments related to X, or shifts in public discourse around his persona, could also cause traders to reassess their predictions. Any significant event impacting his public profile is likely to influence trading activity and the overall price of shares in this market.
