TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 2:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 380 and 399 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and October 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 100.0% probability, while the second most likely outcome – that he will post between 420 and 439 times – is at 0.2%. The market resolves based on the post count from his X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity as we approach the end of the betting period on October 30, 2026, to see if his tweet volume remains consistent with current predictions.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting tweet counts isn’t a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, we can look at general sentiment analysis regarding Elon Musk's online activity and public perception of his communication style. If polls were to indicate a significant shift in public opinion regarding Musk’s engagement, it could potentially influence trading activity and, therefore, the odds in this market. The current focus of this market is on quantifying a specific behavior, rather than gauging subjective opinions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous matching process where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise. Conversely, if traders believe an outcome is unlikely, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are always up-to-date and reflect the latest information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on the X platform (formerly Twitter) between October 23, 2026, and October 30, 2026, inclusive. The final count will be determined by an independent verification of Musk’s X account activity, ensuring an accurate and transparent resolution for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Elon Musk regarding his X platform usage, changes to his communication strategy, or even significant world events that might capture his attention could all influence his tweeting activity. Unexpected technical issues with X, or controversies involving Musk, could also lead to a change in his posting habits. Any news related to his companies, such as Tesla or SpaceX, or his personal life, could also act as a catalyst, shifting the odds in this market as traders react to new information.
