TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 2:04 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 65 and 89 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 22nd and October 24th, 2026. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome an 82.5% probability, while the second most likely outcome – 90 to 114 posts – is at 15.5%. The market resolves based on the post count from Elon Musk’s official X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Traders should watch closely for activity leading up to October 24, 2026, as this date marks the end of the betting period and when the final post count will be tallied for resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 22 12:00 PM ET to October 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling on expectations surrounding Elon Musk’s social media activity. While polls often capture stated intentions, this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, as betting involves real financial stakes, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts. It’s important to remember that polls and prediction markets measure different things—stated opinion versus actual belief backed by capital. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of uncertainty or strong conviction.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome, and the price of these shares reflects the implied probability of each outcome. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by any external factors or other prediction markets.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 22nd and October 24th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available count of his posts during that specific timeframe. The exact number of tweets will determine which outcome wins, and shares will be settled accordingly. This market’s resolution is based on objective data, not subjective interpretation.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Elon Musk regarding his social media usage, changes to the X platform itself, or even significant global events that might capture his attention could all impact his tweeting activity. Unexpected news related to his companies (Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) could also cause fluctuations. Any indication of a planned social media hiatus or a deliberate increase in posting frequency would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds for this market.
