TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 320 and 339 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and October 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to this outcome, with a 0.1% probability assigned to Elon Musk posting between 340 and 359 times during the same period. The resolution source for this market is Elon Musk’s X account, https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity as we approach the end of the betting period on October 27, 2026, to see if his tweet volume aligns with the leading prediction.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 20 12:00 PM ET to October 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting tweet counts is not a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, analysts frequently speculate on Elon Musk’s online activity based on his past behavior and current events. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. It’s possible that the market odds will diverge from any available analyst estimates as new information emerges.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each possible outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding shares will rise. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 20 and October 27, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be determined by an independent verification of his public posts during that timeframe. The market will settle to the outcome that most accurately reflects the verified tweet count.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major news events involving Elon Musk or X, changes to his posting habits, or announcements regarding his schedule could all influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any public statements he makes about his social media usage could impact the odds. Unexpected technical issues with X, or significant shifts in public discourse surrounding Musk, are also potential catalysts that could drive trading activity in this market.
