TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 21, 3:19 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Elon Musk will post between 65 and 89 times on X (formerly Twitter) between October 19, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET and October 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 100.0% probability, while the second most likely outcome – that he posts between 90 and 114 times – is at 0.1%. The market resolves based on posts from https://x.com/elonmusk. Keep an eye on Musk’s posting activity leading up to October 21, 2026, as that date marks the end of the betting period and when the market will be settled based on his total post count.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 19 12:00 PM ET to October 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as predicting tweet counts isn't a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, analysts often attempt to gauge Elon Musk’s likely activity levels based on his past behavior and current events. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies between the market's implied probability and expert predictions may highlight differing assumptions about his future actions.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of tweets posted by Elon Musk on X (formerly Twitter) between October 19 and October 21, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be determined by an independent verification of his public posts during that period. The market will then settle based on which outcome range – defined by the number of tweets – is most accurate, as represented by the shares traded on Polymarket.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Elon Musk or his companies, shifts in his public engagement patterns, or significant world events that might influence his social media activity could all impact trading. Changes in the political climate or controversies involving Musk could also drive price fluctuations. Any news related to X (formerly Twitter) itself, such as policy changes or technical issues, could also affect the perceived likelihood of different tweet counts and, therefore, the price of shares in this market.
